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GEAB N°76 (June 16, 2013) - Contents

Alert for the second half of 2013 – Global systemic crisis II : second devastating explosion/social outburst on a worldwide scale

A 2008 Lehman type shock, the fire’s symbolic start and especially widespread awareness of the situation, has not yet occurred. This really isn’t good news because, over time, the situation is getting worse and it’s not a shock that one must prepare for but a devastating explosion… (page 2)

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EU 2014-2015: after the European Parliamentary elections, the stand-off between the Parliament and the European Council will encourage Euroland’s rise

The EU’s institutional architecture has always been, since the beginning of the European integration process, based on the shifting sands of political reality. If we only look at it at a given moment, one could be led to believe that the structure is sound, firmly rooted in European treaties. But the reality is quite different… (page 11)

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The world in 2030 – Diversification / infrastructures / education: anticipating an economy’s post-crisis capacity to rebound

If it’s necessary to have a view of short term events to navigate through this crisis of secular magnitude, one must never however lose sight of the big picture of the changes in the world, as we regularly remind GEAB readers. It’s the reason why it’s important not to forget the core trends which shape a society over the long term, i.e. over several decades (20 to 30 years)… (page 15)

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Global Governance - The Euro-BRICS rapprochement at the service of the system’s update or as a matrix for a new model?

Are the institutions of global governance, theoretically in charge of managing the crisis affecting the world for the last five years, structurally capable of undertaking the necessary reforms to create the conditions for an improvement in their effectiveness?… (page 27)

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Strategic and operational recommendations

Cash / oil / stock exchanges / bonds… (page 30)

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The GlobalEurometre - Results and Analyses

This month’s questionnaire reflects a high but constant concern about the economic signals, with the notable exception over the risk of bank failures which has become clearer once again… (page 33)

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