Last minute comments After the deadline for this GEAB number last Saturday evening, our team has closely watched the unusual coincidence of all the market indicators’ collapsing: European, American and Asian stock exchanges, raw materials… and even and especially gold. Unfortunately we don’t have time to expand on this event but, anyway, we interpret it in line with everything we have written in this number. But where this number describes things still rather calmly, as still to come, we ...

In the Up & Down trends published in the GEAB January issue, our team wrote the following in the Down section “Economic indicators”: « Between short-term economic indicators which describe only what occurred in the week, others which are manipulated by governments to reflect the message they want to give, and finally others which no longer have any relevance in today’s world, economic reality is at the very least very badly portrayed, even disguised, by these figures followed however by ...

Just as the Euro crisis pushed Europe to modernize and adapt its economic and financial governance to the challenges of the 21st century, the terrible US dollar crisis will oblige the world to transform the whole of world governance structures, beginning of course with the international monetary system to calm the storm which is on the point of striking currencies. According to our anticipations, this reorganization which will only start to become a reality with the September G20 ...

Until now the course of the crisis has been accurately described according to the five phases identified by our team from May 2006 (GEAB n°5) and completed in February 2009 (GEAB n°32): release, acceleration, impact, decanting and global geopolitical dislocation, the last two stages developing simultaneously. In the last issues and in particular the GEAB n°70 (December 2012), we commented extensively on the ongoing processes of the two last phases, a decantation from which the world-after ...

The current geopolitical dislocation, largely anticipated by LEAP/E2020 since February of 2009 (GEAB No. 32), has resulted in a global fragmentation than will accelerate over the course of next year, amidst global recession. The end of the leadership of traditional powers will bring about global chaos in 2013, with the “world after” beginning to emerge. It will be a somber year for the United States, as it loses its status as the sole superpower and finds itself unable to influence the ...

As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 for several months, a major shock to the world economy and global stability has arrived in the Fall of 2012, in the form of a symbolic landmark in world history: Hurricane Sandy. In the method of political anticipation upon which LEAP bases its analyses [91], Sandy corresponds to two characteristics: the “last-straw” event in which accumulated failures become unbearable and break the system, and the symbolic event that strikes the imagination and permanently ...

For several months we have anticipated a major shock for the economy and global political stability for Autumn 2012. We are maintaining this “Red Alert” and will take stock mid-November 2012, at the same time as our annual analysis of the 2013 “risk-countries”, and on the state of the world at this time. These last few weeks, as predicted by our team, the world geopolitical situation has rapidly deteriorated: the Syrian conflict has become a regional conflict in which the major powers are now ...

As LEAP/E2020 anticipated since the end of 2011, the end of summer 2012 marks the beginning of the revival for Euroland with the emergence of a positive dynamic fed by two lasting phenomena: first, the progressive operational installation of the instruments bitterly discussed and decided upon during the last 18 months and, secondly, the visionary spark brought by the political changes of the last six months which have put Euroland’s medium to long term future back in the middle of the ...

The progression of world events unfolds in accordance with the anticipations mapped out by LEAP/E2020 during these last few quarters. Euroland has finally come out from its political torpor and short-termism since François Hollande’s election [146] as France’s president and the Greeks have just confirmed their willingness to resolve their problems within Euroland [147] thus contradicting all the Anglo-Saxon media and Euro sceptics’ “forecasts”. From now on, Euroland (in fact the EU minus the ...

Whilst waiting for Euroland to equip itself, by the end of 2012, with a medium to long term common political, economic and social project, especially following the election of the new French president François Hollande, anticipated many months ago by LEAP/E2020, players will remain prisoners of the short-term reflexes related to the sudden Greek political tremors, the uncertainties over Euroland governance and to the risks in public debts. At the same time, in the United States, the ...