Global systemic crisis – The war has been declared between the economicpolitical world and the financial-banking interests
The current period is a typical example where an impressive number of explosive factors are combining: new financial bubbles inflated by massive injections of public money, worldwide geopolitical instability, currency wars, political the beginning of the political war against “financial terrorism”, political crisis in Europe… (page 2)
2013-2014 – « Icelandisation of the crisis’ management : Bail-in, the new template for too-big-to-fail banks…
The Cypriot crisis is the most dramatic recent example where bank creditors, in this case depositors, are involved in a bank restructuring. For large depositors especially this should not come as a surprise given our analyses in combination with the structure and size of the Cypriot financial sector... (page 11)
The world after is evolving : Syria and Mali, two tangible cases where the global systemic crisis opens up regional prospects
Between a weakened and irresolute Western block and China-Russia which is not yet legitimate enough to really impose its views, regional relationships finally find the space necessary to progress. Two actual cases, Mali and Syria, prove it by different paths, whose crises currently reinforce a languishing regional integration.… (page 17)
Strategic and operational recommendations
. Stocks and shares : what goes up comes down
. Commodities : not only oil is at risk
. Currencies : watch out Yen and Pound !
. Investment : a loan is not the bank’s exclusive domain… (page 21)
The GlobalEurometre - Results and Analyses
A relative calm, quite surprising taking into account the last 30 days news, is revealed by this month’s survey. Pessimism still has its place but no more than last month, even less on several points … (page 24)
At the end of 2005, LEAP/E2020 elaborated a medium-term anticipation scenario concerning the United-States. Using the same conceptual tools that gave birth to the now famous “Europe 2009” scenario – “When the grand-sons of Pétain, Hitler, Mussolini, Franco and Staline will take over the EU”. This new scenario is entitled : “USA 2010 – When the Washington Wall falls”.
This scenario was released on January 15 in the first issue of LEAP/E2020’s confidential letter, the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin N°1, at a time when nearly all experts firmly believed in the sustainability of the Dollar’s strength, in the structural superiority of the US economy, in the harmlessness of US deficits, in the solidity of NATO and the transatlantic axis, and in the US military and diplomatic capacity in handling properly the occupation of Iraq, the nuclear crisis with Iran and the North-Corean case.
A synthesis of this scenario goes as follows :
Assumption 1: The current period reflects in particular the end of the world order founded after World War II.
Assumption 2: The End of the Cold war triggered an increasing objective disconnection between most of planet and the evolution of the two major players of this Cold war: the USSR and the United States.
Assumption 3: Globalisation has considerably weakened the capacity of each State to influence in a decisive way its own evolution, and collectively it has strongly reduced the possibility of preventing / managing major crises.
Assumption 4: A "super power" cannot durably see its external credibility (cultural, moral and intellectual attractiveness, and military power) and its internal credibility (institutional legitimacy, capacity to embody its own speech) being strongly reduced without soon seeing the basis of its power and influence called into question.
Assumption 5: The Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 which led to the disappearance of the USSR three years later, is the result of a historical evolution which affects the United States also./…
First series: USSR
1. 1979 - The USSR invades Afghanistan, and loses all its remaining prestige as "protector" of the Third World as opposed to the First world (Western); the world witnesses the Red Army’s incapacity to control and solve the conflict triggered by this invasion.
2. 1986 – The Chernobyl catastrophy shows to the world Soviet society’ and infrastructures’ decay; the Russians themselves and a large majority of the “satellite” countries become aware of the obsolescence of the Soviet power and of its disinterest for its own people.
3. 1989 - Fall of the Berlin Wall soon followed by the general fall of the Iron Curtain.
4. 1992 - End of the USSR.
Second series: USA
1. 2001-2003 – The terrorist attacks on New-York and Washington put an end to the myth of invulnerability of the US territory and trigger the invasion of Iraq, leading to a loss of the moral leadership acquired along the last decades and highlighting the US army’s incapacity to control and solve the conflict triggered by this invasion.
2. 2005 – The Katrina catastrophy destroys one of the very large cities of the US, highlighting a complete lack of prevision, a disinterest for unprivileged classes, the scope of hidden « poverty » and the disorganisation of relief systems.
The two questions raised by comparing these two series of events are the following:
3. What is the Berlin Wall for the US ? Or in other words: What is the “Washington Wall” enabling the country to keep its grasp on what is at the centre of its power?
4. When will it fall?
Europe 2020 suggests the following answers:
. The “Washington Wall” is the Dollar, and the fall of the “Washington Wall” will consist of a serious loss of confidence in the Dollar.
. Considering the USSR series of events, a probable date ranges between 4 and 7 years from now. Europe 2020 thus symbolically chose the date of 2010.
Precision: The current evolutions in the financial, monetary and economic fields, in particular the increasing American deficits, the emergence of the Euro as a partial alternative, the immense commercial and monetary dependence of the United States with respect to some of its most ferocious competitors like China,… do not make it possible to invalidate such a scenario. Quite the contrary.
GEAB N°1 (on subscription)