At the end of 2005, LEAP/E2020 elaborated a medium-term anticipation scenario concerning the United-States. Using the same conceptual tools that gave birth to the now famous “Europe 2009” scenario – “When the grand-sons of Pétain, Hitler, Mussolini, Franco and Staline will take over the EU”. This new scenario is entitled : “USA 2010 – When the Washington Wall falls”.

A synthesis of this scenario goes as follows :

Assumption 1: The current period reflects in particular the end of the world order founded after World War II.

Assumption 2: The End of the Cold war triggered an increasing objective disconnection between most of planet and the evolution of the two major players of this Cold war: the USSR and the United States.

Assumption 3: Globalisation has considerably weakened the capacity of each State to influence in a decisive way its own evolution, and collectively it has strongly reduced the possibility of preventing / managing major crises.

Assumption 4: A "super power" cannot durably see its external credibility (cultural, moral and intellectual attractiveness, and military power) and its internal credibility (institutional legitimacy, capacity to embody its own speech) being strongly reduced without soon seeing the basis of its power and influence called into question.

Assumption 5: The Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 which led to the disappearance of the USSR three years later, is the result of a historical evolution which affects the United States also./…

First series: USSR

1. 1979 - The USSR invades Afghanistan, and loses all its remaining prestige as "protector" of the Third World as opposed to the First world (Western); the world witnesses the Red Army’s incapacity to control and solve the conflict triggered by this invasion.

2. 1986 – The Chernobyl catastrophy shows to the world Soviet society’ and infrastructures’ decay; the Russians themselves and a large majority of the “satellite” countries become aware of the obsolescence of the Soviet power and of its disinterest for its own people.

3. 1989 - Fall of the Berlin Wall soon followed by the general fall of the Iron Curtain.

4. 1992 - End of the USSR.

Second series: USA

1. 2001-2003 – The terrorist attacks on New-York and Washington put an end to the myth of invulnerability of the US territory and trigger the invasion of Iraq, leading to a loss of the moral leadership acquired along the last decades and highlighting the US army’s incapacity to control and solve the conflict triggered by this invasion.

2. 2005 – The Katrina catastrophy destroys one of the very large cities of the US, highlighting a complete lack of prevision, a disinterest for unprivileged classes, the scope of hidden « poverty » and the disorganisation of relief systems.

The two questions raised by comparing these two series of events are the following:

3. What is the Berlin Wall for the US ? Or in other words: What is the “Washington Wall” enabling the country to keep its grasp on what is at the centre of its power?

4. When will it fall?

Europe 2020 suggests the following answers:

. The “Washington Wall” is the Dollar, and the fall of the “Washington Wall” will consist of a serious loss of confidence in the Dollar.

. Considering the USSR series of events, a probable date ranges between 4 and 7 years from now. Europe 2020 thus symbolically chose the date of 2010.

Precision: The current evolutions in the financial, monetary and economic fields, in particular the increasing American deficits, the emergence of the Euro as a partial alternative, the immense commercial and monetary dependence of the United States with respect to some of its most ferocious competitors like China,… do not make it possible to invalidate such a scenario. Quite the contrary.

GEAB N°1 (on subscription)