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GEAB N°76 (June 16, 2013) - Contents

Alert for the second half of 2013 – Global systemic crisis II : second devastating explosion/social outburst on a worldwide scale

A 2008 Lehman type shock, the fire’s symbolic start and especially widespread awareness of the situation, has not yet occurred. This really isn’t good news because, over time, the situation is getting worse and it’s not a shock that one must prepare for but a devastating explosion… (page 2)

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EU 2014-2015: after the European Parliamentary elections, the stand-off between the Parliament and the European Council will encourage Euroland’s rise

The EU’s institutional architecture has always been, since the beginning of the European integration process, based on the shifting sands of political reality. If we only look at it at a given moment, one could be led to believe that the structure is sound, firmly rooted in European treaties. But the reality is quite different… (page 11)

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The world in 2030 – Diversification / infrastructures / education: anticipating an economy’s post-crisis capacity to rebound

If it’s necessary to have a view of short term events to navigate through this crisis of secular magnitude, one must never however lose sight of the big picture of the changes in the world, as we regularly remind GEAB readers. It’s the reason why it’s important not to forget the core trends which shape a society over the long term, i.e. over several decades (20 to 30 years)… (page 15)

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Global Governance - The Euro-BRICS rapprochement at the service of the system’s update or as a matrix for a new model?

Are the institutions of global governance, theoretically in charge of managing the crisis affecting the world for the last five years, structurally capable of undertaking the necessary reforms to create the conditions for an improvement in their effectiveness?… (page 27)

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Strategic and operational recommendations

Cash / oil / stock exchanges / bonds… (page 30)

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The GlobalEurometre - Results and Analyses

This month’s questionnaire reflects a high but constant concern about the economic signals, with the notable exception over the risk of bank failures which has become clearer once again… (page 33)

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LEAP Academie
Political Anticipation Training Offer

Since September 2009, LEAP has developed a training offer to Political Anticipation, the original method at the core of its analyses.

After a pilot-year, the format has been defined as follows: 3 days of training along the year, designed for groups from 10 to 20 people.

Day 1: Detailed presentation of LEAP’s political anticipation method - Debates

Day 2: Presentation of retro-anticipation drills (3-5 pages) by the participants - Teaching comments - Debates

Day 3: Presentation of anticipation drills (3-5 pages) by the participants - Teaching comments - Debates

Only the participants who follow the 3 sessions and write the two requested anticipation drills, receive a Certificate at the end of the cycle.

IMPORTANT: The training sessions are for GEAB subscribers only (GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin), this publication of LEAP being a common basis essential to the training’s efficiency.

Selection: by written application - numerus clausus

PROMOTION 2009/2010 - "The pionneers"

Baudouin De Sonis, Executive director e-forum, member of Academia Diplomatica Europaea, historian of the future, Belgium

Bruno Paul, Country Leader for Methods and tools / France Offering Manager for Agile chez Atos Origin, France

Jérôme Defaix, Pôle emploi (Employment agency), Directorate general for Information systems, France

Jean-Emmanuel Gilbert, SME CEO, France

Karim Naidji, Researcher and consultant, France

Ludovic Follot, Free-lance consultant - Telecom and information technologies, France

Michaël Timmermans, Gas Operator (Energy), Project manager "A travers les Arts !" asbl (Social) - Member of Newropeans’ CD (Political), Belgium

Sébastien Rouxel, Cost controller – Member of FESTO EURL steering committee, France

Note: In the pilot-year, the training took place in French only

PROMOTION 2010/2011 - "The consolidators"

The second series of training sessions will have two specificities compared to the pilot year:

. it will be proposed in both French and English

. it will take place in 3 different European cities.

The previsional calendar of this second series is the following:

Day 1 : Paris, Nov. 22 (session in French) & Nov. 24 (session in English), 2010

Day 2 : Amsterdam, Feb. 07 (session in French) & Feb. 09 (session in English), 2011

Day 3 : Frankfurt, May 23 (session in French) & May 25 (session in English), 2011


"LEAP2020’s training seminars are the perfect complement of their publications’ research. More than a theoretical learning, the European research center’s managers provide the participants with the means to make their own anticipations. This is an essential aspect in order to evaluate the analyses for their true worth. When projecting one’s research over the years to come, with the constraint of having to justify each word and concept put forward, one realises the level of rigor required by this kind of work. It is a permanent questioning, nurtured by thrilling debates taking place among the participants during the sessions. This traning seminar enables to take the necessary perspective to understand current and future events, perspective and analysis being so absent from the available information in our contemporary media." Michael Timmermans

"The GEAB’s methods of anticipation are explained in a very educational manner. The seminar’s progressivity and its "practical" orientation (case studies/personal research, reflexion and composition) make it easier to absorb the theoretical notions. The recruitment’s quality / diversity is particularly enriching, providing a large opening on today’s world and its potential developement. The sessions’ moderation is very successful, and an opportunity to decipher current events. this traning seminar has enabled me to enhance my personal capacity to perceive great historical trends and/or events. It will help me further, I’m sure of it, to get ready for all the changes ahead, both on a personal and professional point of view." Sébastien Rouxel

"Excellent. A very pragmatic method, well thought and clearly presented. Thrilling exhanges and discussions. A door wide-open on new topics and new people." Jean-Emmanuel Gilbert

"A very professional seminar and chairmanship of the training. The number background of participants did make networking and interactivity very fruitful and beneficial. At the end these 3 days members understand what trends-forecasting is and are able to put together their own scenarii. Allowing them to enlarge their visions of the future and to walk on undiscovered roads." Baudouin De Sonis

"LEAP’s training seminar is unique, not only because of its theme, practical feed-backs of experience and rich exchanges, but also because of its ability to exacerbate our best abilities. It is a training to put oneself in a new dynamic, a movement based on a personal conviction. The personal effort is more demandiung than it seems at first glance, and it is a guarantee for personal discovery and satisfaction. Anticipation is a value for the future amidst the current status quo crisis!" Bruno Paul

"The seminar was rich in teachings both practical and theoretical. A promotion of an exceptional level, a warm-hearty welcoming and highly profesional interventions, this new academy trains to political anticipation today’s and tommorrow’s decision-makers." Karim Naidji

"Why political anticipation? Whether for professional or personal reasons, this method enables to describe in a clear and argumented manner a political, economic or social situation and its potential developments. The specificity of LEAP’s training seminar is in its pragmatic approach, no crystal ball, facts, evidences and more facts!" Ludovic Follot

"The Method of Political Anticipation (MPA) enables to write the diary of the near-future (not not the results of tommorrow’s lottery though!) of European political life based on many international internet sources, commented by a group of interdisciplinary experts unfoldig a systemic method. LEAP’s students’ anticipation drills, disturbing in the first place, because not formated by the anglo-saxon "pensée unique", is an opportunity to understand the dynamics at play in the continental power struggle, and then to prepare decision-making and innovative political actions inherent to the European vision. A method, indeed, efficient, precise, innovative, European and which can be applied generally. The three days of exchange among experts and LEAP trainers are a ’must’ to grasp the MPA." Jérôme Defaix

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