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GEAB N°76 (June 16, 2013) - Contents

Alert for the second half of 2013 – Global systemic crisis II : second devastating explosion/social outburst on a worldwide scale

A 2008 Lehman type shock, the fire’s symbolic start and especially widespread awareness of the situation, has not yet occurred. This really isn’t good news because, over time, the situation is getting worse and it’s not a shock that one must prepare for but a devastating explosion… (page 2)

(En savoir +)

EU 2014-2015: after the European Parliamentary elections, the stand-off between the Parliament and the European Council will encourage Euroland’s rise

The EU’s institutional architecture has always been, since the beginning of the European integration process, based on the shifting sands of political reality. If we only look at it at a given moment, one could be led to believe that the structure is sound, firmly rooted in European treaties. But the reality is quite different… (page 11)

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The world in 2030 – Diversification / infrastructures / education: anticipating an economy’s post-crisis capacity to rebound

If it’s necessary to have a view of short term events to navigate through this crisis of secular magnitude, one must never however lose sight of the big picture of the changes in the world, as we regularly remind GEAB readers. It’s the reason why it’s important not to forget the core trends which shape a society over the long term, i.e. over several decades (20 to 30 years)… (page 15)

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Global Governance - The Euro-BRICS rapprochement at the service of the system’s update or as a matrix for a new model?

Are the institutions of global governance, theoretically in charge of managing the crisis affecting the world for the last five years, structurally capable of undertaking the necessary reforms to create the conditions for an improvement in their effectiveness?… (page 27)

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Strategic and operational recommendations

Cash / oil / stock exchanges / bonds… (page 30)

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The GlobalEurometre - Results and Analyses

This month’s questionnaire reflects a high but constant concern about the economic signals, with the notable exception over the risk of bank failures which has become clearer once again… (page 33)

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Globaleurope / Analyses

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Strategic note, derived from the 4th Euro-BRICS seminar (Moscow, May 23-24th 2013)

SEMINAR’S FULL REPORT RECOMMENDATIONS TO G20 LEADERS, PRIOR TO ST PETERSBURG SUMMIT French translation of the Strategic Note Chinese translation of the Strategic Note Portuguese translation of the Strategic Note Russian translation of the Strategic Note The crisis of legitimacy faced by the institutions of the global governance system set up after 1945 is resulting in the collapse of the old framework of international cooperation, with apparently nothing ready to replace it, besides a ...

Report of the 3rd Euro-BRICS Seminar

PROGRAMME AND PARTICIPANTS The world continues to move through an historical crisis which marks the end of the systems and power relationships dominating the world since the end of the Second World War. The dynamics at the heart of the events of accelerated globalisation and markets’ unbridled expansion these last twenty years have just collapsed. International relations in all fields (finance, economy, currencies, strategy, diplomacy…) have been subjected to an unprecedented rebalancing ...

- Excerpt GEAB N°57 (September 15, 2011) -

On March 29, 2009, Franck Biancheri signed an open letter in the Financial Times international edition from LEAP/E2020 to the G20 leaders who were going to meet in London the next week. In its introduction, this text predicted that if the three recommendations it contained were not implemented as soon as possible, rather than a crisis of three to five years, the world would sink into a crisis for more than a decade. Here we are two and a half years later and, alas, it is now clear that not ...

Executive summary* - 5th GlobalEurope EU-Russia Seminar (Moscow, May 23-24, 2011)

During two days, academics, experts and diplomats from Russia, EU, India, China, Brazil and South-Africa [19] were gathered in the framework of the 5th GlobalEurope EU-Russia on the theme « Which agenda for a Euro-Brics Summit by 2015? » organized jointly by the Laboratoire Européen d’Anticipation Politique (LEAP), “Russkiy Mir” Foundation and the European Studies Institute of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) in partnership with the Europe 2020 network and in ...

- Except book "World crisis - The Path to the World Afterwards" by Franck BIancheri, Director of Studies at LEAP and GEAB coordinator -

The crisis, because it wasn’t anticipated by world leaders, is advancing at its own speed. In 2009 the financial efforts, without historical precedent, of the United States, Europe, China, Japan and other countries have allowed only two things to happen: to anesthetize the general population in various countries in order to postpone a violent political and social reaction and to save the major financial institutions without reforming them. All that done at the cost of an intolerable State ...

Справочная информация - Семинар ЕС-Россия 2015 (Ницца, 23-24 сентября 2010 г.)

В течение двух дней французские и российские эксперты и преподаватели университетов обсуждали в рамках семинара по прогнозированию ЕС-Россия 2015 тему «Каков вклад российско-французских отношений в развитие стратегического партнерства между Россией и ЕС и проведение встречи БРИК-ЕС к 2015 г.?». Встреча организована совместно Европейской лабораторией политического прогнозирования (ЕЛПП), Московским государственным институтом международных отношений (МГИМО) и Университетом Ницца/София-Антиполис, во взаимодействии с Сетью Европа 2010, Российским университетом ...

Executive summary - EU-Russia 2015 seminar (Nice, September 23-24, 2010)

During two days, French and Russian academics and experts met in the framework of the EU-Russia 2015 seminar on the topic « What can be the contribution of Franco-Russian relations to EU-Russia strategic partnership and the holding of a BRIC-EU meeting by 2015? » jointly organised by the Laboratoire Européen d’Anticipation Politique (LEAP), the Institute of European Studies of Moscow’s State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) and the University of Nice/Sophia-Antipolis, in partnership ...

by Héctor R. Sánchez

"In the geopolitical sphere today, … , it is not unreasonable to say that, while the great continental powers in Eurasia, Russia, China and India, are in an excellent state of economic growth, technological development and growing political influence, the great maritime powers, like the United States, the European Union and Japan, are going through a crisis of identity and doctrine, and lack internal efficiency both politically and strategically" [28] . General Jesús Rafael Argumosa Pila [29] ...

by Hector R. Sanchez, Argentina

Background Since their birth the United States had two different foreign policies. Whereas they related to Europe as a peer, in America they developed a policy of expansion [69] and intervention [70] in competition with Great Britain. The US stated the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 [71] (« America for the Americans »). In the 19th century, the Doctrine of Manifest Destiny [72] was proclaimed. Both were completed in 1904 with the Roosevelt Corollary [73] . Since then, the US intention to ...

By Rudo de Ruijter*

Sometimes money is compared with the blood of the economy. The credit crisis painfully demonstrated, that the economy depends on a permanent infusion of credits. As soon as the banks deliver a bit less credit, enterprises fail and the mass dismissals succeed each other. We are made to believe, that the problems with the subprime mortgages were an incident. With a giga-capital injection, a bit more rules and better supervision the banking system would function correctly again. And oh yes, ...

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