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GEAB N°76 (June 16, 2013) - Contents

Alert for the second half of 2013 – Global systemic crisis II : second devastating explosion/social outburst on a worldwide scale

A 2008 Lehman type shock, the fire’s symbolic start and especially widespread awareness of the situation, has not yet occurred. This really isn’t good news because, over time, the situation is getting worse and it’s not a shock that one must prepare for but a devastating explosion… (page 2)

(En savoir +)


EU 2014-2015: after the European Parliamentary elections, the stand-off between the Parliament and the European Council will encourage Euroland’s rise

The EU’s institutional architecture has always been, since the beginning of the European integration process, based on the shifting sands of political reality. If we only look at it at a given moment, one could be led to believe that the structure is sound, firmly rooted in European treaties. But the reality is quite different… (page 11)

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The world in 2030 – Diversification / infrastructures / education: anticipating an economy’s post-crisis capacity to rebound

If it’s necessary to have a view of short term events to navigate through this crisis of secular magnitude, one must never however lose sight of the big picture of the changes in the world, as we regularly remind GEAB readers. It’s the reason why it’s important not to forget the core trends which shape a society over the long term, i.e. over several decades (20 to 30 years)… (page 15)

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Global Governance - The Euro-BRICS rapprochement at the service of the system’s update or as a matrix for a new model?

Are the institutions of global governance, theoretically in charge of managing the crisis affecting the world for the last five years, structurally capable of undertaking the necessary reforms to create the conditions for an improvement in their effectiveness?… (page 27)

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Strategic and operational recommendations

Cash / oil / stock exchanges / bonds… (page 30)

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The GlobalEurometre - Results and Analyses

This month’s questionnaire reflects a high but constant concern about the economic signals, with the notable exception over the risk of bank failures which has become clearer once again… (page 33)

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Neighbourhood / Analyses


by Harry Hagopian *
30/05/2008

Much is happening across the Arab World. Only today, for instance, many of us woke up to learn that Lebanon’s erstwhile protagonists had drawn back from the precipice by concluding an agreement in Qatar that shuns war and toils for peace. In this article, therefore, I would like to focus briefly on five Arab countries where positive expectations as much as negative convulsions have been impacting the lives of their peoples. In a sense, what is unfolding in the Arab political mainstream ...


by Reut Institute (partner)
26/03/2008

Israel’s position regarding its security demands, which entail undermining the sovereignty of a Palestinian state, narrows the chances for reaching an agreement. Essence of Warning During negotiations with the Palestinians in 1999-2001, Israel presented a number of security demands that included, among other things, the demilitarization of the Palestinian state, control and use of its air space, supervision of its external envelope and early warning stations. These demands were based on a ...


Abstract GEAB N°7
16/09/2006

LEAP/E2020 founds two scenarios of the future of Israel on the description of seven breakpoint parameters The summer 2006 Lebanon-Israel crisis has made it possible to identify more precisely the parameters which from now on will define the regional equation of the Middle East. In its latest delivery of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, LEAP/E2020 describes the 7 new parameters defining Israel’s geo-political environment, and draws two alternative scenarios for Israel’s future ...


abstract GEAB N°6
16/06/2006

Turkey-Ukraine, two countries which will not join the EU / The Balkans, last enlargement of the next 20 years / Russia, the key to solve the EU-Turkey problem The increasing difficulties of the process of Turkey entering the European Union contrasts with the progressive entry “piece by piece” of the former Yugoslavia [6] (Slovenia is already a member and Croatia is starting its integration process while proposals to integrate the other Balkan countries multiply). This contrast is all the ...


by Dr Harry Hagopian
28/12/2005

The trial of Orhan Pamuk had barely started in Istanbul, Turkey, on 16 December 2005, when the presiding judge adjourned the proceedings until 7 February 2006. Few are the media-savvy and news-conscious Europeans across much of the Union who will not have heard of Orhan Pamuk. An internationally renowned author of bestselling novels such as My Name is Red (winner of the IMPAC Literary Award in 2003), Snow and more recently Istanbul, the 53-year-old Pamuk was also a short-list candidate ...


by Franck Biancheri
01/12/2004

All around the EU, and in particular in countries where referenda on the EU Constitution will take place, the question of possible Turkey’s accession to the EU has become, by far, the prominent topic of people’s discussions when it comes to EU’s future. And, if one agrees to ignore the surveys and polls paid either directly by Turkish money, or by pro-Turkish lobbyists, the simple fact is that a very large majority of European citizens (from 60% to 90% depending on the country) are opposed to ...


by Josef Langer
19/04/2004

With the forthcoming biggest enlargement („big bang“) in its history, the European Union is undoubtedly becoming more conscious of the question of boundaries. This can be recognized from a number of documents and discussions made public since 2002 when at the Copenhagen European Council (12/13 December, 2002) enlargement with ten new countries got a final go ahead. Before, external boundary questions received rather little attention with the exception of the Schengen cooperation and maybe the ...


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