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GEAB N°76 (June 16, 2013) - Contents

Alert for the second half of 2013 – Global systemic crisis II : second devastating explosion/social outburst on a worldwide scale

A 2008 Lehman type shock, the fire’s symbolic start and especially widespread awareness of the situation, has not yet occurred. This really isn’t good news because, over time, the situation is getting worse and it’s not a shock that one must prepare for but a devastating explosion… (page 2)

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EU 2014-2015: after the European Parliamentary elections, the stand-off between the Parliament and the European Council will encourage Euroland’s rise

The EU’s institutional architecture has always been, since the beginning of the European integration process, based on the shifting sands of political reality. If we only look at it at a given moment, one could be led to believe that the structure is sound, firmly rooted in European treaties. But the reality is quite different… (page 11)

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The world in 2030 – Diversification / infrastructures / education: anticipating an economy’s post-crisis capacity to rebound

If it’s necessary to have a view of short term events to navigate through this crisis of secular magnitude, one must never however lose sight of the big picture of the changes in the world, as we regularly remind GEAB readers. It’s the reason why it’s important not to forget the core trends which shape a society over the long term, i.e. over several decades (20 to 30 years)… (page 15)

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Global Governance - The Euro-BRICS rapprochement at the service of the system’s update or as a matrix for a new model?

Are the institutions of global governance, theoretically in charge of managing the crisis affecting the world for the last five years, structurally capable of undertaking the necessary reforms to create the conditions for an improvement in their effectiveness?… (page 27)

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Strategic and operational recommendations

Cash / oil / stock exchanges / bonds… (page 30)

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The GlobalEurometre - Results and Analyses

This month’s questionnaire reflects a high but constant concern about the economic signals, with the notable exception over the risk of bank failures which has become clearer once again… (page 33)

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Democratisation / Analyses

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Edito MAP3-July 2011

Download MAP3 (free) What will the world after the babyboomers look like? Or, more exactly, Europe after the babyboomers? This is the main anticipation work of this 3rd edition of MAP. And the subject’s worth it because, on the one hand, we’re seeing throughout Europe the growing expression of the younger generation’s frustration (the "Indignant" is the particularly obvious expression for them) against the frenzied selfishness of a generation that refuses to consider that it hasn’t "deserved" ...

by Jean-Paul GUICHARD, ’Jean Monnet’ European Chair, University of Nice Sophia-Antipolis

Careful thought on the finality of European programmes intended for the university level is a must. These programmes present a major flaw, essentially being one-way, but one which can be surmounted, as the University of Nice has proven with its considerable experience in teaching double degree courses of study. 1) « One-way programmes » On first approximation, it could be said that the TEMPUS or ERASMUS-MUNDUS programmes (at least, for the latter, insofar as mobility is concerned) are ...

by Franck Biancheri, Newropeans President

As the debate rages over Manuel Barroso’s renewal at the head of the European Commission, everyone seems to forget that this year is also the 10th anniversary of Santer’s Commission collective resignation on grounds of ill-management and corruption scandals. According to Newropeans, and to all those interested in the progress of both democracy and Europe, beyond the Barroso case, what is really important is to take stocks of the decade following this historical crisis of Europe’s executive ...

by Matthew Omolesky *

The Idea of Tolerance The gateway of Amsterdam’s old Tugthuis, or House of Corrections, features two rather forbidding seventeenth century sculptural groups – one depicting the female embodiment of the city alongside manacled prisoners with the label Castigatio chiseled beneath them, the other a bas-relief of a charioteer whipping abject wolves and lions. Between these arrangements is the motto Virtutis est domare quae cuncti pavent, a quotation from Seneca’s Hercules Furens meaning “It is a ...

by Franck Biancheri

We Europeans have been, in the XXth century, from East to West of our continent, the actors of dreadful historical tragedies perpetrated in the name of modernity while in fact they were the contemporary expression of the most ancestral archaism. Repression, brutality, manipulation, extermination, conflict, division, terror, arbitrary,... dressed up in their finest costume, first hiding under apparently harmess or positive words such as security, modernisation, sincerity, truth, ...

By Marco Caselli

I Introduction The paper presents some preliminary results and reflections arising from an ongoing research project on the role – actual and potential – of civil society in the construction and consolidation of the European Union, in the latter’s life and functioning, and in the dynamics of building a European identity. The project – conducted by a group of researchers in the Department of Sociology of the Catholic University of Milan under the supervision of Professor Vincenzo Cesareo – ...

par Pierre F. Gonod

Cette étude reprend des analyses précédentes, et non publiées, de mouvements sociaux en France de la période 1995-2005, vus d’un point de vue systémique. Elle est actualisée par le décryptage de la révolte sociale contre le CPE de mars 2006, elle en fait la comparaison, continuités, différences et ruptures entre ces mouvements.

by Masha Loyak

With the French law against conspicuous religious signs, the outer world gets a glimpse of a key-instrument of France’s social-engineering invented along centuries of internal conflicts: laicity. At a time of growing internal and international social conflicts, it may be good news that this French debate finally crosses borders. Wherever I travel recently, I get the same interrogations about the French law on conspicuous signs of religion. People abroad are obviously interested by the idea, ...

Abstract GEAB N°2 (February 15, 2006)

The internal difficulties of the member-states in continuing the European constitutional project were detailed in GEAB Nr1. This month, LEAP/E2020 undertakes to analyse the converging capacity on this subject of the various institutional players. It was indeed one of the three requirements defined in this field. Within the EU Council, it is illusory to envisage the least agreement to be made on the future of the constitutional project until 2009, when the next European elections take ...

by Franck Biancheri

Discussions, debates are the core of democracy. Language is the instrument for discussing. Languages are therefore at the very core of any EU democratisation process. When you go around Europe and discuss with people on the future of Europe, as I did for instance during the Newropeans Democracy Marathon, and when you take time to get out of capital cities and well-educated elites, you find yourself facing a very simple fact: the very large majority of European citizens do not speak any ...

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